Tianmu Lake (603136): Cost reduction boosts performance, waiting for hot spring to land

Tianmu Lake (603136): Cost reduction boosts performance, waiting for hot spring to land

Event: Tianmu Lake released the semi-annual report for 2019, and the company achieved operating income in 19H1.

20 ppm / + 0.

27%, net profit attributable to mother is 53.71 million yuan / + 9.

56%, net profit after deduction is 5169 million / + 14.


Q2 achieved revenue of 1 in a single quarter.

31 ppm / + 1.

42%, net profit attributable to mother 38.71 million yuan / + 23.

31%, deducting non-net profit 36.87 million yuan / + 17.


The company’s non-recurring profits and losses mainly come from government subsidies and investment and asset management income.

Opinion: Lower costs boost performance.

According to the subsidiaries, the 19H1 hot spring / Zhuhai / Cableway / travel agency subsidiaries achieved revenues of 60.23 million / 67.19 million / 8.25 million / 74.50 million, an increase of 1.

62% /-0.

11% / 142.

19% /-2.

89%; net profit of 4.51 million / 23.84 million / 5.11 million / 2.25 million respectively, with an increase of -25 in the future.

5% / 5.

53% / 318.

31% / 1.


Expenses: Expense rate 27 during 19H1.

15% /-3.

15pct, of which the sales expense ratio is 13.

28% /-0.

14pct, management expense ratio 15.

05% / + 0.

22pct, financial expense ratio -1.

18% /-3.

At 23pct, the decrease in the financial fee rate was mainly due to the increase in interest generated by the company’s deposits. Considering the subsequent use of funds to invest in the second-phase project of the hot spring and the issue of debts that are about to be issued, the future financial fee rate will rebound.

Profitability increased steadily: 19H1 gross profit margin was 65.

66% / + 1.

59pct, net interest rate 28.

60% / + 2.

54 points.

The company is a leader in the development of private scenic spots. The management team has rich experience and has established a one-stop tourism and leisure base relying on the reservoir and bamboo forest.

The company’s attractions are located in the Yangtze River Delta within 3 hours. The attractions cooperate to extend the customer’s stay, tap the secondary consumption to increase the company’s revenue, and direct sales mainly reduce the dependence on OTA.

The company’s development model is highly replicable and is expected to expand in different places in the future. The company’s future performance growth comes from the increase in 杭州夜网 passenger traffic + the increase in passenger unit prices + the completion of new projects.

There are three new projects: (1) Yushui Hot Spring Phase II (Zhuxi Valley), the amount of investment increased to 2.

400 million, the company’s high-end hotel product line, is expected to contribute 60 million revenue each year in the future; (2) Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II, with hotels as the main body, replacing the Nanshan Zhuhai shortboard, improving the stay time and per capita consumption level of tourists(3) The renovation of the first phase of the hot spring will help revive the competition between hotels and hot springs that have been in operation for ten years, and increase the number of receptions and per capita consumption.

Investment suggestion: Consider the second phase of the hot spring project is about to open, adjust the company’s profit forecast.

It is estimated that the company’s total operating income for 2019-2021 will be 5 respectively.

2.3 billion, 6.

1.7 billion and 6.

8.4 billion, a six-year growth of 6.

93%, 17.

82% and 11.

00%; net profit attributable to mother is 1.

19 billion, 1.

4.6 billion and 1.

6.1 billion, an increase of 14 in ten years.

89%, 23.

07% and 10.

57%; Expected earnings for 2019-2021 are 1.

02 yuan, 1.

26 yuan and 1.

39 yuan, the corresponding PE according to the latest closing price is 21 times, 17 times and 15 times.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of natural disasters, the project progress is less than expected, the risk of reducing the price of attraction tickets

Science and Technology Board Fund Perspective-61% Annual Return Difference

Science and technology board fund perspective: 61% difference in annualized returns
Among them, the best performer is Southern Technology Innovation A, with an annualized return rate of 55.97%; the bottom of the financial communication science and technology theme is 3 years closed operation is -5.4% of “Investment Times” reporter Qi Wenjian restricted 1 billion US dollars of products, but attracted tens of billions of capital to snap up.Reward rate?Maybe guess.  The hottest sales scene in China’s domestic wealth management market in 2019 points to a new thing: the science and technology board theme fund.  Since the official launch of the Science and Technology Innovation Board on June 13, the long-awaited registration reform has finally come to fruition.But more importantly, in the face of the multi-level investment market where financial management products are returning steadily and the risk level is soaring, it has always been quite good at “new” and never lacked the enthusiasm for pursuing new things.With the best place.  As of October 23, the Science and Technology Board has accepted a total of 166 companies, of which 77 companies have completed the meeting, 34 companies have completed listing and have raised 480 funds.$ 8.5 billion, which is equivalent to an average fundraising of 14 per company.1.4 billion.  However, the problem of overestimation of listed companies on the science and technology board has also been criticized by some market participants.According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, as of the close of October 23, the average market surplus of 34 stocks of the science and technology board made up 71.78 times, while the average price-earnings ratio of the motherboard over the same period was only 13.81 times.  On the first day of the opening of the science and technology board, the first 25 listed stocks rose by an average of 140%, of which Anji Technology (688019).(SH) At the close, it rose 4 times.However, the previous gradual return to rationality, and some individual stocks are even “slashed” from previous highs.Wind data show that as of the close of October 23, there were 7 companies that had previously fallen 50% from their intraday highs, namely Bai Chu Electronics (688188).SH), Anji Technology, Hanchuan Intelligent (688022.SH), Microchip (688321.SH), Crystal Morning Stock (688099.SH), Shinko Optoelectronics (688011.SH), Tianzhun Technology (688003.SH).  Will the performance of the science and technology board fund be in harmony with each other and go high?  At present, a total of 18 science and technology board funds have been set up in the public fund market, and their performance is also polarized.According to the latest data disclosed by Wind, 13 of the funds have annualized returns of more than 10%, including Dacheng Science and Technology Innovation theme closed for 3 years, Fu Guo Science and Technology Innovation theme closed for 3 years, ICBC Technology Innovation closed for 3 years, Huitianfu TechnologyInnovation A and so on.The annualized return rate of Southern Technology Innovation A is as high as 55.97%, temporarily topped the list of similar funds.Of course, it is impossible for all chickens and dogs to “ascend to the sky”-the annualized return rate of the three-year closed operation of Caitong Science and Technology Innovation is only -5.4%.  In addition, through the third quarterly report of the Science and Technology Board Fund, its position ratio and heavy positions have gradually surfaced.Huaxia, Huitianfu and Harvest Fund’s science and technology board funds all outperformed the benchmark for comparison in the third quarter. Among them, Huaxia Technology Innovation and Huitianfu Technology Innovation Fund’s stock positions exceeded 90%.However, it is intriguing that science and technology board stocks appeared again in the top ten heavy stocks of the two theme funds.  Regarding the overestimation of the science and technology board and the polarization of the performance of the science and technology board, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said in an interview with the reporter of the Investment Times that as a “hotbed” for science and technology enterprises, the science and technology board maySome companies with growth potential will be bred, which will have investment value in the long run.  ”The market’s overall expected estimates are biased because most of the science and technology boards are start-ups and have not yet formed a stable profit and a good business model. Using traditional price-earnings ratios, the price-to-book ratio cannot be estimated, and an alternative estimation method may be required in the future.”Yang Delong is outstanding, different fund managers have different levels of investment, and there are differences in the choice of heavy positions. It is normal that the performance of the science and technology board fund is severely differentiated.  109 science and technology board funds pending approval In fact, since the beginning of the fourth quarter, the news from the science and technology board is mixed.First, the enthusiasm of the “entry into Morocco” boosted market enthusiasm, and then the release of the Shanghai Component 50 Index was suspended.  On October 11, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an announcement saying that in order to further optimize the index preparation and release work, after research, the release of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index was postponed, and the release time is no longer announced.  Regarding the cause of the delay in the release of the Keke Board Index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange explained: “In terms of sector size, the number 重庆耍耍网 of listed companies has decreased and the volume has been relatively small.In the meantime, most professional institutions including fund companies have proposed that the Science and Technology Board Index, as the core component index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, needs to focus on index substitution and investability.Based on the recommendations of the benchmark market, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company decided to suspend the launch of the Science and Technology Board Index after in-depth investigation and research.”According to this, in July of this year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Index Company jointly announced that the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 was officially released on the 11th trading day after the number of stocks and depositary receipts on the Science and Technology Innovation Board reached 30.Composition index.  Wind data shows that as of October 23, there are 109 science and technology board funds to be approved.According to CSRC data, as of October 12, two science and technology board funds have been approved for issuance, which are CSI Shenzhen Technology Innovation Theme Index Fund (LOF) affiliated to Anxin Fund, and NORD CSI R & D Innovation 100.Index funds.  ”Investment Times” reporter noted that this year’s pending approval of science and technology board funds in addition to Bo Shi Fund, GF Fund, China Fund, Harvest Fund, E Fund Fund and other head company-owned products, there are no shortage of China Post Venture Fund, China Science and Technology Fund, Pioneer Fund, Xinyuan Fund and other small and medium-sized fund companies.  The performance of the 18 funds is clearly differentiated. The first batch of science and technology board funds that have been established have been running for almost half a year, and even the fund that was established at the latest has been running for nearly four months.  In terms of performance, according to the latest data, 17 of the 18 science and technology board funds received positive returns, and 13 funds with an annualized return of more than 10%, including Penghua Science and Technology theme closed operation for 3 years, Fuguo TechnologyInnovation, rich country science and technology innovation theme closed operation for 3 years, Southern Technology Innovation A, etc. Among them, Southern Technology Innovation A has an annualized return rate of 55.97%.The Boshi theme is closed for three years, the Huaan theme is closed for three years, and the annual return of the three-year closed theme for GF science and technology is less than 10%.  The bottom-line performance of the financial communication science and technology theme for three years closed operation was established on July 11 this year, and since the establishment on October 18, the revenue conversion has been -1.51%, annualized return of -5.4%.According to the “Investment Times” reporter’s calculations, the difference between the annualized rate of return of the science and technology board fund currently reaches 61.37%.  Jia Zhi, research director of Tianxiang Investment Consulting, told the Investment Times reporter that the performance differentiation of science and technology board funds is inevitable because of differences in investment strategies and differences in investment capabilities.  From the perspective of investment targets, science and technology theme funds are mainly divided into two categories.One is a fund with the name “Science and Technology Innovation Board” directly on its name.This type of fund requires that at least 80% of the non-cash fund assets be invested in the science and technology board, of which closed-operation science and technology board funds can participate in strategic placement, and there is no need for a warehouse when participating in the science and technology board.  The other names have the words “Science and Technology”, “Science and Technology Innovation” or “Science and Technology Innovation”.This type of fund requires that at least 80% of non-cash fund assets be invested in technology innovation stocks in the entire market, which can be invested in science and technology board, GEM board, small and medium board, and many technology innovation stocks on the main board.  According to the operation mode, the theme fund of science and technology board can also be divided into two categories, one is a closed-end fund, which can participate in the strategic placement of science and technology board stocks.Take ICBC Technology Innovation for 3 years as an example. Although it is a closed-end fund, it does not need to be held for three years after subscription. Once the fund is listed, it can be sold in the secondary market; the other is an open-end fund.Funds cannot participate in strategic placements and can participate in online new and secondary market transactions.  It is worth mentioning that the science and technology board is the focus of the layout of fund companies, so each company also strives to optimize the allocation of investment and research personnel.According to “Investment Times” reporter statistics, the 18 established science and technology board funds have a total of 34 fund managers, generally have industry research and investment experience, and there are no shortage of star fund managers.Among them, He Tao, a fund manager with a theme of closed operation in 3 years, has the longest investment experience of 11.47 years.  It is estimated that the high-end fund managers value the granularity of the technology innovation board for more than three months. The attention of listed companies has gradually dropped, and the trend of opening higher and lower has been shown.According to Wind data, as of the close of October 23, only Anji Technology and Microchip Bio have been the only stocks with an increase of more than 300% from the issue price.SH), only 64.44%.It seems to be that the long-term merger of the highest price divisions of science and technology board companies has suffered.Perhaps, such as Bai Chu Electronics, the highest price was 278 yuan created on the first day of listing, and the closing price on October 23 was only 126.12 yuan.  This, a fund manager who did not want to be named, told the Investment Times reporter that with the previous batch of listed science and technology board companies ranking, the recent growth of listed science and technology board companies is difficult to reach 300%. It needs to be an investorGradually return to rationality, and gradually you can grind the initial capital and investment targets. Supply and demand will obviously increase supply and demand.  However, the problem of overestimation of listed companies on the science and technology board still exists.Data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that as of the close of October 23, the average market surplus of 34 stocks of the science and technology board made up 71.78 times, the average market surplus of the motherboard over the years13.81 times.  ”Science and technology board enterprises are mainly based on technology companies. They have characteristics of high growth, capital intensiveness, and uncertain profit models. Traditional estimation methods such as PE are not fully applicable to pilot enterprises, and the new estimation model has not yet formed an effective test.Individual investors try not to participate in the first five days. It is better to wait for a period of time before they are relatively stable.It is recommended to buy and sell after half a year after listing. At that time, information disclosure and market feedback are more sufficient, so that there can be a more reasonable evaluation.”The fund manager said.  De Hao Fund Manager Wu Hao said in an interview with the “Investment Times” reporter that the Science and Technology Board has just been established, and it is inevitable that a higher estimated premium will occur. When the GEM was established in 2009, a similar situation occurred.”Higher estimates require the market to recover and digest. The company ‘s high estimates for sustainable continuity also need to be combined with the industry in which it is located. In terms of company size.The science and technology board companies will appear differentiated. Good companies can still enjoy higher estimated premium levels, while companies that are basically facing downwards may experience a decline in returns.”Jia Zhi, the research director of Tianxiang Investment Gu, believes that as a brand-new section, the science and technology board is different from the issue and transaction, and the estimation method is also different from this traditional industry.At present, the listed companies on the science and technology board do have some overestimates, and the market needs to run in.  Tang Neng, a fund manager with a closed theme of Yinhua Science and Technology for three years, told the Investment Times reporter that the current overall evaluation of the Science and Technology Board is relatively high, which is related to the many hotspots of the Science and Technology Board. Now it is mainly from new development and strategic placement.The value of arbitrage increases the attractiveness of investment value in the secondary market; high estimates will replace the gradual digestion of the increase in the number of listed companies and are expected to gradually decrease.  Although the science and technology board is estimated to be high, the fund company still strives to find a “dark horse” from it.Wu Hao from Debang said that the positioning of the science and technology board is a technology innovation enterprise that meets national strategies, breaks through key core technologies, and has high market recognition, involving six major industries represented by new-generation information technology and biomedicine.”In fact, these six industries are also our focus areas. We also have a complete investment system for high-growth industries and companies. In this system, we pay more attention to the future trends of the industry, the space and the scope of the company itself.Li Shuangquan, deputy general manager of the investment department of Huashang Fund and manager of the Huashang Reform and Innovation Fund, told the Investment Times that the market recognizes the long-term direction of technology growth. Therefore, technology stocks, especially some of the technology companies listed on the science and technology board,Say a higher estimate.With reference to the development history of the GEM, some companies do have excellent technical strength and good business models that continue to create value for shareholders, but some companies have become value destroyers.In addition to paying attention to the long-term direction of the investment target, investors need to verify their ability to continue to contribute and the ability to create free cash flow through a certain period of time.In addition, it is also important to choose the right time point and estimated level for investment, so that the risk-benefit ratio will be more matched.  Tang Neng said that he is optimistic about the medicine and TMT sector. Medicine mainly relies on the advent of the large cycle of innovative medicines, and TMT benefits from the explosion of new technology application development after 5G.  According to the current science and technology board has shown a good money-making effect, many fund managers suggested that ordinary investors can use related theme funds to grasp the possibility of science and technology board investment.

Yutong Bus (600066): The sales performance in March is beautiful and the logic of long-term growth remains unchanged

Yutong Bus (600066): The sales performance in March is beautiful and the logic of long-term growth remains unchanged

Company News Company News Yutong Bus released the March production and sales report, with monthly sales of 4,237 vehicles, each time +23.

5%, including 1,633 bus sales, +58 per year.

4%, Chinese passenger sales of 1,899 vehicles, +16 per year.

7%, light passenger sales were 705 vehicles, -8 throughout the year.


Cumulative sales in the first quarter were 10,579 units, +6 per year.

3%, of which the sales volume of big customers was -0 in half a year.

27% to 4,116 vehicles, sales of Chinese customers increased by +15.

1% to 4,659 units, light passenger sales increased by +1.

4% to 1,780.

  Comments on March sales performance was beautiful.

The sales volume of the company’s buses increased in March and increased the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. The sales volume in February was low, and the cumulative sales volume fell slightly in February and March. Instead, the subsidy policy was not implemented, and the market had an early purchase behavior.

  Net profit is expected to be about 3 in the first quarter.

500 million, the impact of supplementary downhill is controllable.

First quarter sales quarter +6.

3% reached 10,579 vehicles, and the proportion of large and medium passenger sales was stable, assuming that the net profit of bicycles remained at 3.

30,000 yuan (the same period last year, relatively conservative), the net profit is expected to be about 3 in the first quarter.

500 million.

The company achieved superior results in 2018 through cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, price increase and other methods to compensate for the distortion caused by the decline.

Looking forward, we expect the second quarter will still experience pre-downsell sales. The off-season sales volume is supported. Although the battery cost reduction space is reduced, the absolute amount of compensation for the downhill increase is reduced. We believe that the company can still absorb the price increase through price increases.Partially compensate the impact of the decline, thereby achieving relatively stable profitability.

  In the medium and long term, high R & D investment will shape technical barriers to cater for the upgrading of the passenger car market and strive to seek new market growth points.

In the next few years, we will gradually replenish and completely withdraw, and the domestic bus market is still under great pressure.

However, the industry has entered a period of accelerated integration, and the phenomenon of low-price rush orders will gradually decrease. The company continues to expand research and development expansion, and actively deploys 杭州夜生活网 forward-looking areas such as intelligentization and networking to promote high-end products to meet the needs of the passenger car market.Profit-backed market share increased.

At the same time, the increase in the domestic city share will be achieved. At the same time, actively expanding overseas markets, especially new energy buses, will continue to develop and will become one of the main growth points in the future.

Basically, although the shrinking of the long-distance passenger transport market eventually led to the continuous change in the sales of seat cars, it has transformed into the rapid development of industrial parks. The increase in commute demand from 30-60 kilometers cities to suburban areas will drive the sales of seat buses.

  It is estimated that the profit forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remain unchanged.

Maintain 深圳桑拿网 the recommendation. We believe that the worst time for the company has passed. Market share is the core indicator. Acceleration of industry integration and the improvement of technology biology will bring up valuations. Therefore, we raise our target price by 20% to 18 yuanCorresponding to 17 times P / E in 2019, there is 19% upside for the earlier price.

  Demand for risky buses accelerated; market integration speed exceeded expectations.

Peng Ding Holdings (002938) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Benefit A Customer Additional Orders Optimistic about Q4 Results Recovery

Peng Ding Holdings (002938) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Benefit A Customer Additional Orders Optimistic about Q4 Results Recovery
The company released the third quarter report of 2019 and achieved revenue of 173.400 million, +0 a year.4%, net profit attributable to mother 17.0 billion, ten years +9.0%, of which Q3 revenue / net profit are two years +2 respectively.7% /-3.4%, short-term pressure on performance growth.Looking forward to the 天津夜网 future, the sales of new machines for customer A are positive, and the company’s expansion in client A is expected to increase. It is optimistic about the company’s subsequent performance and maintains a “buy” rating.  Q3’s net profit was under short-term pressure. Customer A helped Q4’s performance to promote recovery.The company achieved revenue of 173 in the first three quarters of 2019.400 million, +0 a year.4%; net profit before and after deducting non-attribution to mother 17.0/16.0 billion, ten years +9.0% / 10.9%, of which Q3 single-quarter revenue was 80.0ppm, +2 for one year.7%, net profit before and after returning to mother is 10.9 billion / 10.7 trillion, each -3.4% /-0.8%.Benefiting from exchange rate fluctuations and additional orders from customer A, the company’s Q3 revenue growth rate was H-1 -1.5% rebounded to 2.7南京夜生活网%.Absolutely, due to the product structure adjustment, the company’s Q3 gross profit margin was ten years -1.8 pieces to 24.4% caused pressure on overall performance.On the expense side, the company’s Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratios were changed to +0.18 / + 0.34 / -0.57 / -0.78pct, which benefits from exchange loss gains and gains, the company’s financial expenses from 0.900 million to -1.600 million yuan.Looking ahead to Q4, customer A’s iPhone11 series sales exceeded expectations, and additional orders were placed with suppliers, optimistic about the company’s performance to recover.  Customer A: The new machine sales exceeded expectations, and it is expected to benefit from MPI antenna transfer orders.The iPhone11 series of new phones released by customer A in September was recognized by consumers. We estimate that the sales of the three new models of 19H2 are expected to reach 70 million units (65 million units are expected before release), and will drive upstream FPC / SLP demand.In essence, the company’s new machine uses MPI antennas. The company is the first supplier of the material number. Currently, the product quality of the second supply is less than expected.1.9 billion yuan.In addition, A customer is expected to launch two generations of iPhones (SE of H1 and 5G new phones of H2) for the first time next year. The overall output in 20 years is expected to increase to 200 million units (8% year-on-year), and the company is expected to benefit as its core supplier.  Non-A customers: Huawei is progressing smoothly and enjoys watching the incremental space in the 5G era.Since 18H2, the company has started full cooperation with Huawei, and has gradually supplied FPC and some part numbers of motherboards for Huawei mobile phones, such as MCP30’s LCP connector, which has already contributed part of the revenue.Huawei has launched 5G mobile phones, and it is expected that the use of FPC and SLP will continue to increase in the future. Its PCB unit volume and price will rise in the same way as customer A.In the future, Huawei’s high-end machine sharing will increase and the company’s revenue structure is expected to continue to optimize.  Risk factors: Weak customer sales, PCB upgrade length, antenna solution changes, and increased industry competition.  Investment suggestion: The company is the world’s largest PCB manufacturer and A customer’s core PCB supplier. In the future, it will continue to benefit from 5G and continue to grow.We maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20/21 to 1.32/1.57/1.87 yuan, considering the leading premium, give the company 36 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 56.52 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Shengyi Technology (600183): Investor Reception Day Outlook is Optimistic

Shengyi Technology (600183): Investor Reception Day Outlook is Optimistic

Event: On the afternoon of August 15th, Shengyi Technology held an investor site reception day after the semi-annual report on antiques at the Songshan Lake Base in Dongguan, Guangdong. Chairman Liu, General Manager Dong Tang and relevant leaders of the securities department made long-term reports on the company’s semi-annual operation.Business strategy, the current industry boom, industry competition and other issues had in-depth exchanges with investors.

Comment: Optimize the structure and strengthen the main business and become a comprehensive solution provider for end users: Although most of the 苏州桑拿网 revenue of the above copper clad laminate business comes from common types of copper clad laminates such as FR4, in high-end markets such as semiconductor packaging substrates, high-frequency copper clad laminates, and high-speed copper clad laminates.The occupancy rate is not high, but the company has accumulated years of development in the high-frequency field. In 2018, it entered the preparation period for production and mass production in 2019. Some semiconductor products have also completed technical breakthroughs, but the yield of the existing production line is not high.Need to build specialized chemical plants.

In addition, the company merges products with mainstream technology routes of automotive copper-clad laminates, and actively cooperates with customers such as Bosch for continuous product development.

At present, the company is formulating a new five-year development plan, which will gradually change from a “global PCB enterprise preferred supplier” to a “global end-user integrated solution provider”. By establishing a market, R & D personnel and Huawei and other end customers are closer.Business relationship to accelerate its own product transformation and increase high-end market share; the outlook for the third quarter is optimistic, and the industry’s development tends to pick up in the second half of the year: the second half of the year is the traditional peak season for the industry, and the demand for communications continues to drive the overall prosperity, some of whichEnd PCB companies are committed to enjoying the overlapping effect of orders from communication PCB companies, and upstream CCL suppliers will benefit from expanding the market.

At present, the company’s Q3 orders are full, and the market demand for automotive and consumer products (such as mobile phones, home appliances, etc.) has rebounded, and many high-speed products have benefited from the accelerated introduction of customers and the accelerated expansion of the integrated market, and have been in a state of heavy volume.

At present, the company guarantees the needs of communications customers by adjusting the capacity of traditional products to high-speed products. Therefore, the capacity is relatively in short supply. Although it may decline, the profit elasticity promotes improvement.

Shengyi Electronics has sufficient capacity reserves, and the product structure can still be optimized: In 19H1, Shengyi Electronics ‘gross profit margin increased by 9 percentage points, output increased by 11%, average price increased by 48%, and it decreased when capacity increased (in absolute terms)) Instead, it can be seen that increasing production capacity is used to increase the number of product layers, and the increase in the profit elasticity coefficient of high-rise boards is the key to doubling the profit in the first half of the year.

In terms of production capacity, Shengyi Electronics’ mid-year production capacity in 2019 is estimated to be 1.2 million pings / year, and the investment in the Dongcheng Phase III expansion project6.

500 million, about 40% of the progress as of the middle of the report, the Dongcheng plant technical transformation project investment is about 0.

800 million, progress of about 30%, these projects will increase production capacity by about 20% relative to the current in the next year.

Looking at Q2, 5G order revenue accounted for less than 50% of Shengyi’s overall revenue, and industry research understands that its supply from core customers is on the rise.

In the medium and long term, it is good at high-level PCB technologies such as backplanes, which have high reliability requirements and many special processes. At present, there are only 4-5 domestic companies that can stabilize large-scale production, and they have been in this field for many years.

If there are new entrants in the follow-up, it may not be able to meet the long-term competition requirements in terms of yield, profitability, production line investment and running-in.

We don’t think the pattern will change in the short term, and the price of orders will not change substantially.

Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” investment rating.

We believe that the communication business has become a new core driving force for the company, and the company has entered a new round of development period with optimized product and customer structure and enhanced growth.

It is expected that the revenue forecast for 2019-2021 will reach 130/160/19 billion, and the net profit attributable to mothers will reach 13.



9.5 billion (considering amortization of three-year equity incentive expenses), the corresponding EPS is zero.



92 yuan, corresponding to the current total PE of 34.



4x, maintaining “Strongly Recommended-A” with a target price of 26.

4 yuan.

Risk warning: industry demand is lower than expected, 5G exceeds expectations, and industry competition is intensifying

Zhibang Home Furnishing (603801) Quarterly Comment: Advance receipts continue to improve expenses Expenditure effect is reflected in the fourth quarter

Zhibang Home Furnishing (603801) Quarterly Comment: Advance receipts continue to improve expenses Expenditure effect is reflected in the fourth quarter

The company achieved revenue in the first three quarters of 201919.

5.8 billion, an annual increase of 12.

92%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

US $ 3.3 billion, an annual increase of 14.

49%, net of non-attributed net profit2.

03 trillion, a ten-year growth of 9.


In Q3 2019, revenue was 8.

09 million yuan, an annual increase of 16.

94%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

2.3 billion, an annual increase of 13.

06%, net of non-attributed net profit1.

4.0 billion, an annual increase of 2.


The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 38.

54%, an increase of 1 per year.

23pct, net interest rate 11.

90%, a year to increase 0.

16 points.

Among them Q3 gross profit margin is 39.

99%, increase by 1 every year.

44 points, net interest rate 15.

18%, a decline of 0 per year.

52 points.

The company’s gross profit margin has maintained a good improvement. We believe that it is mainly wardrobes and the scale effect of wooden door products has begun to manifest. These tax reductions this year will also help.

  The increase in “Koi Festival” marketing activities and digital marketing expenses led to an increase in the sales expense ratio.

The company’s expense ratio during the first three quarters was 25.

21%, an increase of 1 per year.

47pct, sales expense ratio 15.

55%, increase by 1 every year.

44pct, management expense ratio 6.

07%, a year to raise 0.

18pct, R & D expense ratio 3.

66%, a decrease of 0 every year.


The rate of expense during Q3 was 24.

00%, an increase of 3 per year.

56pct, selling expense ratio 13.38%, an increase of 2.

07pct, management expense ratio 6.

03%, a year increase of 0.

62 points, R & D expense ratio 4.

75%, increase by 0 every year.

74 points.

There are two reasons for the increase in the company’s sales expenses: First, the “Koi Festival” event is mainly in the third quarter, and marketing expenses are allocated, but it is reflected in the income end to the fourth quarter; second, the project performance orders increase rapidly, and engineering servicesExpenditure increases.

We believe that there is a 北京男士spa会所 misalignment of expenses and revenue recognition in the third quarter, and that revenue and profit in the fourth quarter are expected to see significant improvement.

  The company’s advance receipts in the third quarter continued to improve, and its operating cash flow improved for many years.

19Q3 Net operating cash inflow was zero.

8.4 billion US dollars, more than a year inflow1.

4.6 billion.

Net operating cash inflows in the first three quarters2.

10,000 yuan, more than a year into 0.

1.6 billion.

Receipt cash flow 20.

2.7 billion, a decrease of 1 every year.


Q3 receipt cash flow of 7.

5.2 billion, a decrease of 20 per year.


The company’s advance payment at the end of the third quarter3.

3.7 billion, an increase of 15 every year.

61%, the growth rate continues to accelerate, indicating 北京夜生活网 that the retail side is continuously improving this year.

Maintain the profit forecast. The company is expected to have a net profit of 3 for the period of 19-21.

14 billion / 3.

70 billion / 4.

22 billion, with growth rates of 14 respectively.

95% / 17.

99% / 14.

04%, corresponding to 14 respectively.

1X / 11.

9X / 10.

4 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

  Risk warning: less-than-expected delivery, increased competition in the industry, etc.

Willing wine industry (600702): the company needs further nationalization and structural upgrade

Willing wine industry (600702): the company needs further nationalization and structural upgrade
The 3Q19 results were lower than we expected the company to announce the 3Q19 results: 1?3Q19 revenue 18.430,000 yuan, an increase of 16% in ten years; net profit attributable to mothers3.30,000 yuan, corresponding to a profit of 0.898 yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.9%.  Among them, 3Q19 earned 6.23 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.1%; net profit attributable to mother 1.170,000 yuan, corresponding to a profit of 0.348 yuan, an increase of 9 in ten years.6%.The average revenue and net profit attributable to mothers are lower than ours and the market expectation, mainly because the sales 合肥夜网 growth rate of sub-high-end products has not reached our expectations.  Development trend Taste reluctantly positioned around 400 yuan, we think this will lead to low channel profits, lack of channel enthusiasm, and the lack of high growth bases in traditional markets.We estimate that the sales volume of taste and taste exceeded the growth rate of 25/22% in 2019/20, respectively.We believe that the profit of channel profits is also not conducive to the company’s further expansion of new markets. Compared with Shuijingfang, Shuijingfang is about 50% lower than the factory price of taste. We believe that the company needs to further reduce the factory price to increase product costs and participate in more intensemarket competition.  We believe that it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in high-end willing sales of more than 500 yuan.We estimate that the growth rate of high-end 杭州夜网论坛 willing sales in 2019/20 will be 25/20%, reaching 375/418 tons.China’s high-end wine market is fiercely competitive and has higher requirements for brands. We believe that under the circumstances that the company’s sub-high-end scale is still limited, it takes time to build high-end brands.  We believe that this is the landing of the company. The controlling shareholder of the company also has the motivation and resources to promote the quality and management of the company. However, in the short term, the increase in the company’s revenue requires more marketing channel reforms to stimulate dealers’ motivation.  Earnings Forecasts and Estimates As 3Q19 performance exceeded our expectations and the pressure on sub-high-end competition increased, we reduced the growth rate of smart sold sales again from 30% / 30% to 25/20% in 2019/20, increasing the highest sales of taste sold.The rate was reduced from 33/28% to 25/22%, and the 2019/20 profit forecast was lowered6.9/17.1% to 3.92/500 million.We maintain our target price of 34 due to the valuation switch.2 yuan is unchanged, corresponding to 29 of 2019/20.5 / 23x P / E, currently included for 2019/20 25.2/19.8x P / E with a target price of 16.Upside of 7%, maintain Outperform rating.  Risk If the next high-end competition intensifies, the continuous growth rate of taste willing sales may continue to decline.

Quanzhu (603030) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Strong growth in the main industry, profitability improved, cash flow improved significantly

Quanzhu (603030) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Strong growth in the main industry, profitability improved, cash flow improved significantly

Investment Highlights: Event: The company released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of 65 in 2018.

2.1 billion, an increase of 40 in ten years.

98%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.

6 billion, an annual increase of 58.


In the fourth quarter, the growth rate of the main shaft system base, the expected performance basically met expectations, and the main business growth rate remained at a high level.

The company’s Q4 revenue / attribution is 19.

85 billion / 1.

3.4 billion, an increase of 22% / 15%, respectively, down 24pp / 50pp compared to the same period last year, the single quarter revenue and return to the mother in 2017Q4 both reached a historical high, the base is broken.

The growth rate of initial revenue and return to motherhood reached 41% / 58% basically in line with expectations.

The income from the division business basically maintained a relatively high level, and the income from public construction (full house decoration + public building decoration) was 58.

9.3 billion year-on-year growth of 36.

9%, gross profit margin 12.

09%; design income 2.

9.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, a gross profit margin of 50%; furniture income 2.

1.3 billion yen +423.

7%, judged to be driven by business expansion after the acquisition of GOSA, with a gross profit margin of 25.

81%; income from home improvement construction is 0.

4.9 billion YOY-35%, with a gross profit margin of 12.

35%; the gross profit margin and the period rate have disappeared, the impairment / tax rate / minority shareholders’ profits and losses have increased, the overall profitability has improved, and cash flow has improved significantly.

Report first-tier company gross margin 14.

49%, the same increase of 1pp, is due to the high growth of high gross profit business, the gross margin of public service / design / furniture increased by 0.

3pp / 4.

7pp / 4.

4pp; sales / management / finance rate 0.

65% / 5.

34% / 1.

04%, respectively reduced by 0.

1pp / 0.

6pp / 0.

4pp, the rate during the same period is reduced by 1.

1pp; impairment 1.

A 100% increase of 154% resulted in an increase in bad debt accrual at a tax rate of 20.

38% increase by 5.

The 3pp judgment was due to the lowered tax rate during the settlement and settlement of the same period last year.

4% increase by 0.

7pp, profitability has been steadily improved.

The cash-to-cash ratio is reduced by 1.2pp / 13.

4pp, operating cash flow1.

$ 9.2 billion increased by 4.

7.1 billion; Leading hardcover companies have significantly benefited from policies to promote full renovation, rapid order growth, abundant reserves, and custom hardcover business outbreaks to improve profitability and cash flow.

At present, the average ratio of complete renovation of residential buildings in the country / first-tier cities is only 10% / 50%, which is a gap from the previous level of 80%.

The policy plan is that by 2020, the proportion of newly completed finished residential buildings will reach 30%. Based on this, we estimate that the CAGR of the fully decorated market in the next two years will be above 35%.

The company is a leader in residential hardcover, with a single-year growth rate of 92% / 39% in the new decade of 2017/2018. At the end of the reporting period, there were about 11 billion orders in hand, and revenue for a reasonable period1.

7 times; the newly signed contract for custom hardcover / design / full-furnishing construction increased by 37655% / 97% / 42% respectively, and the orders at hand at the end of the period increased by 5761% / 42% / 30% respectively;Introduce the channel, centralized C-side decoration, quickly and rapidly expand the scale, accumulate refurbishment customers, profit margin is higher than the full decoration business and adopt the prepayment mode, increase the proportion and continue to improve the overall profit and cash flow; profit forecastAnd investment rating: It is estimated that the company’s operating income from 2019 to 2021 will be 86.

7.3 billion, 110.

85 billion, 135.

700 million; net profit attributable to mothers is 3.

48 ppm, 4.

3.7 billion and 5.

3.4 billion; EPS is 0.

65 yuan, 0.

81 yuan and 0.

99 yuan, the corresponding PE is 12 respectively.

7X, 10.

1X and 8.

2 times.

Covered for the first time and given a “Recommended” rating.

Risk reminders: 1. Real estate risk. 2. Material price fluctuation risk. 3. Market competition risk.

HKUST Xunfei (002230): Expected strong growth in the third quarter, AI bonus period must be confirmed again

HKUST Xunfei (002230): Expected strong growth in the third quarter, AI bonus period must be confirmed again
It is predicted that the net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 50 per year in the first three quarters.61%?73.43% of HKUST Xunfei announced the third quarter of 2019 performance forecast, the net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 2019 is expected to increase by 50.61%?73.43% to 3.30,000 yuan?3.800 million.Among them, the net profit attributable to mothers in the third quarter is expected to increase by 58 each year.81%?115.31% to 1.410,000 yuan?1.9.1 billion. Points of Attention The AI bonus 天津夜网 period has been confirmed, and the increase in human efficiency has brought double-click on performance growth.As we stated in the Air Force’s comments, HKUST Xunfei ‘s “AI + Track” strategy is entering a large-scale realization phase in education, politics, office and other advantageous tracks.As early as the beginning of 2019, the chairman of the board, Mr. Liu Qingfeng, set the tone. In addition to income in 2019, he also added human effectiveness to achieve profit growth that matches income.We believe that the company can bring gross margin level 0 to the total by actively reducing the integration business.8 outstanding improvements.And through the rapid growth of revenue (our projected annual incremental growth to maintain a 40% growth rate) brought about the scale effect and effective control of the cost end, we expect to increase the net interest rate instead of increasing 1.5 averages, reaching 8.3%, thus establishing the inflection point of per capita net profit.Initially, we expect net profit attributable to mothers to increase by 69%.5% to 9.1.9 billion. The strategy is well prepared and fearless of international challenges.Recently, international forecasts are complex. The company’s core technology has complete independent intellectual property rights, does not require the authorization of any foreign manufacturers, and the overseas revenue accounted for only 0 in the first half of 2018/2019.61% / 0.57%, little dependence on overseas markets.In the supply chain itself, the company’s core core algorithm training platform uses high-performance GPUs provided by NVIDIA. If the supply chain changes, it may have a short-term impact on the company’s continuous platform.However, the company cooperates closely with domestic companies such as Huawei and Cambrian, and can be completely replaced after certain work.To provide an inference framework for online services such as translation recognition, the company uses Nvidia calibrated GPUs, and domestic alternatives are also very mature.At the application level, the chip supplier of the company’s translator products is Qualcomm.Due to the company’s sufficient stocking, the short-term impact of sales scale is not significant.In the medium and long term, the company can substitute products from MediaTek, Spreadtrum, Rockchip and other companies. The company expects to generate less than 10 million one-time transplant costs. Estimates and recommendations Maintain target price and profit forecast, maintain outperforming industry rating and target price of RMB 40, according to the 2020 segment aggregate forecasting method, corresponding to 2019/20 96x / 61x price-earnings ratio.Our target price is 27% more upside than currently sustainable.The current consensus is 75 for 2019/2020.5/48.1x price-earnings ratio.As a target of higher 南宁桑拿 performance certainty, we recommend taking in dips during the transition. Risk cost control was less than expected; new product launches were less than expected; revenue recognition was delayed.

A shares rebound for 3 consecutive days-what public offering to buy in the golden pit has revealed the investment direction

A shares rebound for 3 consecutive days: what public offering to buy in the gold pit has revealed the direction of investment

Hookup reports A-shares, market stability is affirmed!

Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to the annual column “Business Day Financial Morning Post”, free trial before February 9!

  Original title: A shares rebounded for 3 consecutive days!

What to buy in the gold pit?

The public offering has already revealed that the investment direction of A shares has rebounded for 3 consecutive days!

What to buy in the gold pit?
The public offering has already revealed the investment direction. After the holiday, A shares have gone through four trading days. Except for the A shares that fell sharply on February 3, the other three trading days have been doing well.

  In fact, as early as the A-share adjustment, a large number of public funds raised their support for A-shares, and then Xingquan Fund started self-purchase and included public funds to follow up.

On the whole, public funds all agree that short-term shocks do not change the long-term trend of A-shares.

In terms of configuration, the medical and health sector is definitely a promising direction for public offerings.

In addition, benefiting from the rebound in performance, the technology sector has also been favored by some public offerings.

  The long-term positive trend of A shares remains unchanged. Wang Hongyu, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund, said that shocks are the normal state of the market.

The market twists and turns but never stops.

The inflection point will soon appear, and China’s economy will return to the track of steady growth.

  Boshi Fund Chen Ao pointed out that the long-term positive trend of A shares remains unchanged.

  Fundamentals, capital, investor sentiment, etc. will comprehensively determine the stock market trend.

The impact of short-term events on the market is mainly the investor’s sentiment, especially the stock line itself is a market with more retail investors. The impact of sentiment on the market trend will become more 深圳spa会所 prominent, which will cause the market to fall more when it fallsIt will rise a little higher when it rises.

  Chen Ao said that the impact of the epidemic on A-shares after the opening of the market has suffered short-term shocks and relative pressure. What really determines the long-term trend of the stock market is its own inherent relevant logic, such as the performance of the real economy determines the profitability of listed companies.The profitability of listed companies is the fundamental factor that determines whether the stock itself is strong.

  From the perspective of forecasting A shares, Southern Fund Lin Lefeng said that the current overall forecast of A shares is still in the relatively bottom area of history, and it is also cheaper in the global market.

Therefore, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, adjustments are more likely to be a better time to open positions.

  Investment opportunities in medicine and technology have been around for nearly three trading days. A shares have come out of a beautiful rally, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 gaining 5.

73%, the GEM Index rose even as high as 12.


  Huashang Fund Li Shuang (Jin Qilin analyst) said that A-shares’ steady recovery continued. The short-term market impact and impact will gradually weaken. A-shares will gradually return to its own evolutionary logic and focus on the medical informatization sector.

  In addition to the medical informatization sector, Li Shuangquan added weighing. Consumer electronics, computers, new energy vehicles and other industries with high industry prosperity are still the focus of the market. The change from the previous is that the overall market risk may be somewhatThe decline in improvement will focus more on the company’s size and how well performance and estimates match.

  Tianhong Fund said that at present, after 4 trading days, the risk of A shares has been released to a certain extent.

  In terms of industry configuration, the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarter report is focused on the technology manufacturing sector (electronics, power equipment and new energy) with performance flexibility and sustainability, especially the annual report performance may not be the most dazzling, but it is expected to benefit 5G applications in 2020Continuous improvement industries such as communications, computers, etc.

  In addition, the Boshi Fund also reminded investors that the full suspension of the Spring Festival film is absolutely negative for theater-related companies. The number of people going out during the Golden Week has fallen sharply. The air transport industry, the hotel industry, and the tourism-related industries have been directly hit.

In addition, including the catering industry, the consumer industry will be directly affected by the epidemic.

  But looking back, you can also see that some industries may usher in new investment opportunities during the development of the epidemic. Video, online games, and mobile games have reached record highs during the Spring Festival.

  (Absolute value Ke Qingjun)