Chenguang Stationery (603899): Traditional business revenues have increased rapidly, and Jiumu has achieved breakeven. Cultural and creative leading operations exceed expectations

Chenguang Stationery (603899): Traditional business revenues have increased rapidly, and Jiumu has achieved breakeven. Cultural and creative leading operations exceed expectations

Investment Highlights: The company released its three quarterly report for 19: Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 79.

4.7 billion (+29.

78%), net profit attributable to mother 8.

2.0 billion (+28.

36%), deducting non-net profit 7.

6.1 billion (+32.

88%).

Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 31 in a single quarter.

0.9 billion (+33.

02%), net profit attributable to mother 3.

3.1 billion (+32.

22%), deducting non-net profit3.

3.3 billion (+43.

89%).

The company’s long-term business excellence, traditional business revenue growth rebounded sharply, new business profitability continued to improve, performance exceeded market expectations.

The refined financial management of channels has been released, and the increased contribution of Anshuo and Consolidated Accounts has contributed to the traditional business performance. According to calculations, excluding the growth contribution of Keli’s growth and living museum, it is expected that the company’s traditional business Q1-Q3 can achieve about 20%.Revenue growth, excluding the 200 million yuan of revenue contributed by Ashuo’s consolidation, the company’s traditional business can maintain a steady growth rate of about 15%.

From the perspective of single-quarter growth prospects, considering that the company ‘s Q2 channel refinement has improved significantly, it is expected that Q3’s single-quarter revenue growth rate will significantly increase to a high level of about 20%.

Short-term companies have launched cultural and creative boutiques and online channels. High-margin boutique cultural and creative products. The proportion of office and beauty products has continued to increase. It is good to replace the replacement.In the same period last year, it was increased by 2pct.

In the long run, considering Chenguang Stationery’s current market share in the traditional stationery field and the stickiness of alternative channels and product conversion capabilities, we judge that the market share of its traditional business still has the potential to double, and it can continue to achieve stable growth in the next three years.

New business is progressing well, Klippu continues to grow rapidly, and Jiumu achieves breakeven: vertical Klipp and Jiumu have a good growth trend.

Among them, Colip has achieved a high growth rate of 35-40% in the quarter under the background of the high prosperity of the office mining industry. At the same time, the supply chain and logistics and distribution capabilities have been improved. The release of maximum scale has continued to bring profit increases, and the expected netnessInterest rates can reach 2-3%.

The growth of Jiumu and the Life Museum was beautiful during the year. After opening the franchise model, it gradually entered a rapid expansion phase. Until the end of September, there were 125 living museums and 212 Jiumu (136 self-operated + 76 joined)南宁桑拿.In the third quarter, the profit of Jiumu and Life Museum was flat.

In the long run, the company’s two new businesses have good growth prospects in the context of the upward trend in the industry.

Increased gross profit margin and excellent profitability: The company can achieve a gross profit margin of 26.

79%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.

33pct, mainly due to the optimization of the product structure, which is a good result of the substitution reduction; a series of period expense ratios totaled 14.

53%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.

39pct is basically stable.

The selling expense ratio is 8.

82% (+0.

34pct); management + R & D expense ratio 5.

81% (+0.

27pct), mainly due to the company’s increased investment in research and development, and Shanghai Anshuo’s consolidation led to increased costs; financial expense ratio -0.

09%.

Taken together, Q1-Q3 companies achieved a net profit attributable to motherhood10.

23% (-0.

07pct), which is basically the same as the same period of last year. Among them, the profitability of traditional businesses is prominent in a market with better competition.

In addition, the company’s Q3 single-quarter deduction of non-profit was fully realized43.89% growth, better operating quality.

The operating cash flow is excellent, and the accounts receivable and bills maintain stability: a series of net operating cash flows of the company.

7.8 billion, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.

8.6 billion, thanks to the company’s effective management of cash flow for sales and purchases, the performance of cash flow in a single quarter exceeded the profit for the same period.

At the end of the period, the company’s inventory decreased by 0 from 19H1.

1.6 billion to 12.

6.1 billion, 52 days of inventory turnover.

Rise 1 in 20 days.

25 days to 53.

For 45 days, the turnover rate remained stable; the total accounts receivable and bills increased by 1 compared with 19H1.

5.3 billion to 12.

9.5 billion, accounts receivable turnover days also increased by 3.

38 days to 35.

77 days, because of the sustained rapid growth of Colip, due to the rapid account period of the government and large central enterprises, the overall performance was in line with expectations.

The development of the two wings has accelerated, and the company’s scale has continued to be optimistic: the company’s traditional business has dug deep into the moat, and its peers with earlier product strength and channel strength have significant advantages. Through a multi-level and competitive distribution network, the continuous penetration of fine cultural innovation andStore optimization, initially expected to maintain a compound growth of about 15%.

The models of Colip and Jiumu have gradually matured. Among them, Colip’s policy has been rapidly increasing by the east wind, and has now entered the stage of the release of scale effects. The expansion of Jiumu and Life Museum is gradually getting better, and the company relies on the existing supply chain and brand advantages, And an excellent team of professional managers, continue to improve the overall retail operation efficiency.

Earnings forecast and investment grade: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 112 in 19-21.

83/146.

00/192.

07 million yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

2% / 29.

4% / 31.

6%.

Net profit attributable to mother 10.

40/12.

98/16.

3.9 billion, an annual increase of 28.

9% / 24.

8% / 26.

3%.

The current market value corresponds to 42 PE in 19-21.

07X / 33.

72x / 26.

70X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Traditional retail development is not up to expectations, and office direct sales growth is not up to expectations.